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Heads & Beds

How was this built?

Every number on this site comes from the three comp files, one build script and a short list of public sources.

Nothing in the interface is typed in by hand. Re-run the script and every page updates.

Method

  1. 1Read the files

    The build script reads the three comp files (sheet “Historical Rate & Occupancy”) and skips the note row, the header, the “Leasing Year 20…” section rows and the “Weighted Avg” summary rows. Madison's summary rows carry values; they are ignored. That leaves 220 property-year rows.

  2. 2Clean them

    A row at exactly 0% occupancy with an asking rent is a building that has not opened; it moves to pipeline. Occupancy above 100% is capped. A $0 rent is dropped from rent averages. A property that first appears after 2024-25 already occupied is existing stock added to the survey, not new supply.

  3. 3Measure each market

    Stabilized occupancy = occupied beds ÷ operating beds. Rents are bed-weighted across operating, priced rows. Same-store rent uses properties operating and priced in all three snapshots, weighted by 2026-27 beds; year-over-year growth is the bed-weighted change across every pair priced in both years. Absorption is the change in occupied beds minus the occupied beds of survey additions.

  4. 4Score and rank

    7 factors are min–max scaled across the three markets to 0–100 and weighted (occupancy 20%, occ. change 10%, rent cagr 15%, rent yoy 10%, pipeline 20%, enrollment 15%, beds < 90% 10%). Robustness draws 5,000 Dirichlet(1) weightings with a fixed seed.

  5. 5Simulate fall 2027

    5,000 seeded runs per market. Demand = Oct-26 occupied beds × (1 + g), g ~ Normal(enrollment growth, 1.5%). Supply = operating beds plus each pre-delivery building with probability 90%. Occupancy = min(demand ÷ supply, 99%). Fall-2028 announced projects are excluded from the 2027 run and included in the pipeline factor.

  6. 6Verify

    A vitest suite asserts every headline value against the case's expected results: occupancy, beds, rents, same-store growth, scores, robustness, simulation medians, the absorption test, lease-ups, pricing power and the 44-issue log.

Download the cleaned data

One row per property per snapshot, with reported and cleaned occupancy, status and every cleaning flag. heads-and-beds-cleaned.csv (220 rows)

School marks and colors

Marks identify each market; charts use steps of each school's colors tuned so the three markets stay distinguishable, including for color-blind readers. Marks are trademarks of their universities and appear here only to identify the market.

Sources

  • LV Collective comp files: Auburn, AL; Madison, WI; Norman, OK. Historical rate and occupancy, snapshots 10/22/2024, 10/22/2025 and 10/22/2026.

    Provided with the case. Occupancy is in-place; asking rent is for the following academic year.

  • Business Alabama, Public Universities 2025

    Auburn. https://assets.businessalabama.com/2025/12/Public-Universities-2025.pdf

  • Auburn University Bulletin, enrollment statistics

    Auburn. https://bulletin.auburn.edu/generalinformation/enrollmentstatistics/

  • WTVM, Apr 15 2026

    Auburn. https://www.wtvm.com/2026/04/15/luxury-student-housing-breaks-ground-downtown-auburn-despite-construction-moratorium/

  • Auburn Villager

    Auburn. https://www.auburnvillager.com/news/city-council-approves-moratorium-for-downtown-auburn/article_3b8198ee-0f41-4453-b812-f413a4ad1dcd.html

  • OU Institutional Research, Fall 2026 enrollment summary

    Norman. https://ou.edu/content/dam/irr/docs/enrollment-statistics/enrollment-summaries/Fall/Enrollment-Summary-FA26.pdf

  • Gilbane, financial close

    Norman. https://www.gilbaneco.com/about/whats-new/news/gilbane-reaches-financial-close-on-purpose-built-student-housing-community-at-university-of-oklahoma/

  • OU Admissions

    Norman. https://ou.edu/content/admissions/sooner-stories/2026/ou-continues-historic-momentum-with-largest-freshman-class-in-State-and-University-history-for-sixth-straight-year

  • OU Housing & Food, residency requirements

    Norman. https://ou.edu/housingandfood/housing/rates-and-requirements/residency-requirements

  • Universities of Wisconsin, fall 2026 enrollment

    Madison. https://www.wisconsin.edu/news/archive/universities-of-wisconsin-enrollment-in-fall-2026-exceeds-164500/

  • Spectrum News 1, Sep 11 2026

    Madison. https://spectrumnews1.com/wi/milwaukee/news/2026/09/11/uw-enrollment-madison-decrease-college-students

  • The Daily Cardinal, May 2026

    Madison. https://www.dailycardinal.com/article/2026/05/wisconsin-requests-proposals-for-new-uw-madison-dorm

  • The Daily Cardinal, Mar 2026

    Madison. https://www.dailycardinal.com/article/2026/03/housing-report-says-private-apartments-can-meet-student-demand-uw-still-wants-a-dorm