Madison, WI, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Madison
- Verdict
- Pass
- Rank
- 3/3
- Score
- 0/100
Why pass on Madison?
2,246 beds are still pre-leasing, 54.7% of operating beds sit below 90%, and enrollment fell 2.0%.
- Occupancy
- 83.0%
- −11.8 ptsYoY
- Same-store rent
- −0.3%
- −13.9 ptsYoY
- Rent CAGR, 2 yr
- 4.2%
- n = 20 properties
- Avg asking rent
- $1,440/bed/mo
- −1.3%YoY
- Median rent
- $1,408/bed/mo
- p75 $1,493
- Beds below 90%
- 54.7%
- +40.0 ptsYoY
Trend
Occupancy fell 11.1 pts to 83.0% while same-store rent compounded 4.2% a year
Stabilized occupancy
Same-store asking rent, $/bed/mo
Property occupancy
54.7% of Madison's operating beds sit below 90% occupied
Each dot is one operating property in Oct-26; area is beds. Filled dots are below 90% (eight properties). Pre-delivery buildings are excluded.
Pipeline and lease-ups
2,246 pre-delivery beds open for fall 2027
| Property | Beds | Delivery | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliv Broom | 1,730 | Fall 2027 | Comp file, pre-leasing at $1,434 |
| Mifflin a Chapter Residence | 516 | Fall 2027 | Comp file, pre-leasing at $1,348 |
| New UW–Madison residence hall | 1,750 | Fall 2028 | Press report |
Comp-file pipeline = rows at 0% occupancy with an asking rent, i.e. pre-delivery (pre-leasing for fall 2027).
Three buildings opened in the survey window
| Property | Beds | First-year occ. | Rent vs market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saxony ApartmentsOpened Oct-26 | 171 | 93.8% | −10.2% |
| Theory MadisonOpened Oct-26 | 716 | 88.7% | +0.1% |
| Hub Madison BassettOpened Oct-26 | 910 | 56.3% | −3.5% |
Lease-up = 0% in one snapshot, occupied in the next. Rent vs market compares asking rent with that year's bed-weighted market average.
Outside the comp file
- Enrollment, fall 2026
- 50,595students
−2.0% from 51,645 in fall 2025. Universities of Wisconsin, fall 2026 enrollment; Spectrum News 1, Sep 11 2026
UW–Madison enrollment fell by 1,050 students in fall 2026.
The Maxfield study counts about 40,555 beds within a mile of campus and roughly 8,055 more in the pipeline through 2029.
UW issued an RFP for a new 1,500–2,000 bed residence hall, which competes directly with private beds.
What would change my mind
- Oliv Broom and Mifflin sign more than 85% of their 2,246 beds before fall 2027, which shows demand we cannot see in enrollment.
- UW shelves the new residence hall and enrollment returns to growth.
- A distressed asset trades well below replacement cost (about $140k/bed), which turns Madison into a buy-not-build opportunity.